Mass adoption of reduced-capability 5G (5G RedCap) for mid-tier cellular IoT applications will start from next year (2024), commencing in China, reckons analyst house Omdia. The arrival of RedCap, it said, will help to drive overall cellular IoT connections to 5.4 billion in 2030, representing a (rough) rise of around 70 percent compared to 2023. 2G- and 3G-based IoT connections will vanish, effectively, by 2027, new research by the firm suggests.
Meanwhile, 4G/LTE-based IoT connections will continue to dominate, going from around 2.6 billion in 2023 to 3.2 billion in 2030, constituting around 82 percent and 60 percent of the total cellular IoT market at either end of the period. 5G-based IoT connections will reach about 1.2 billion in 2030, comprising around 22 percent of the cellular IoT market, from virtually nothing in 2023. (Note, these are estimates based on a reading of the Omdia graph below.)
