Vladislav Zaimov stands at the crossroads of infrastructure and innovation, bringing a wealth of experience in navigating the volatile landscape of the Brazilian telecommunications and technology markets. As an expert in enterprise telecommunications and the management of high-stakes network risks, he offers a seasoned perspective on the shifting tides of mergers and acquisitions in the region. Our discussion delves into the current paradox of the market: a massive surge in total transaction value even as the number of individual deals contracts. We explore the heavy concentration of capital in major infrastructure projects, the strategic dismantling of legacy assets, and the emerging dominance of cybersecurity and artificial intelligence in shaping future investment cycles.
The following conversation examines the recent 400% spike in value within the technology, media, and telecommunications sector, driven largely by a handful of mega-deals that have redefined the industry. We analyze the specific pressures facing regional internet service providers, the impact of high capital costs on strategic exits, and how geopolitical shifts and election cycles influence the timing for both domestic and international investors.
The telecommunications sector has recently seen a dramatic 53.8% surge in transaction volume, while tech and media have faced significant declines. What do you believe is driving this sudden appetite for telecom assets specifically?
The shift we are seeing is largely a flight toward the stability of infrastructure during a period of broader economic recalibration. While technology and media deals dropped by 27.9% and 73.7% respectively, telecommunications became the primary engine for value, with just 12 deals accounting for R$18 billion of the R$19 billion moved in the first half. This concentration shows that investors are prioritizing assets with physical footprints and established cash flows, which are often viewed as safer harbors when compared to the high-growth but high-risk nature of software or content production. We are witnessing a phase where large-scale infrastructure, privatizations, and public-private partnerships provide a set timeline and tangible security that pure-play tech startups currently lack. It is a fundamental “hook” in the sector that keeps capital flowing even when other areas of the market are pulling back.
With nearly 95% of the total transaction value concentrated in just a dozen deals, how is this massive concentration of wealth affecting the competition for smaller players and new market entrants?
This level of concentration creates a two-tier market where the “giants” are essentially reorganizing the landscape among themselves. For example, when you see a transaction like Claro acquiring Desktop in São Paulo for R$2.4 billion, it signals to smaller regional ISPs that the window for independent growth is narrowing significantly. These regional providers often find themselves in a difficult position; they have created immense value through local consolidation, but the rising cost of capital makes it nearly impossible to compete with the sheer scale of the industry’s leaders. This pressure forces them to the negotiating table sooner than they might have planned, as they recognize that being a large independent player is no longer enough to survive against the integrated capabilities of the top-tier firms. Consequently, we are seeing strategic moves accelerated by the realization that future growth as a standalone entity is fraught with increasing financial hurdles.
We’ve seen the extensive dismantling of major entities like Oi through various stages of judicial recovery and bankruptcy. Do you see this trend of distress-driven M&A continuing, or are we shifting back toward purely strategic growth?
We are currently in a hybrid environment where financial distress is the catalyst, but the resulting deals are highly strategic for the buyers. The breakup of Oi is a perfect illustration of this; it wasn’t just a fire sale, but a systematic redistribution of critical assets, such as the sale of its stake in V.tal to BTG Pactual and BGC Holding. These deals are born out of a necessity to renegotiate debt and navigate out-of-court recoveries, but the buyers are picking up pieces that fit perfectly into their long-term infrastructure puzzles. High interest rates have made capital injections much tougher to negotiate, so we will likely see more companies in financial trouble looking to shed non-core assets to stay afloat. For the buyer, it is a rare opportunity to acquire high-value infrastructure at a price point that reflects the seller’s urgency rather than a purely competitive market valuation.
Cybersecurity and AI are frequently cited as the next big frontiers, yet you’ve noted that we are seeing more investments than major acquisitions in these areas. What is preventing these sectors from reaching the same deal volume as traditional telecom?
The primary reason is that many of these technologies, particularly those involving artificial intelligence, are still in their early-stage investment and platform-building phases. In the cybersecurity space, however, we are seeing more movement because it is directly tied to the growth of hyperscale data centers and national security concerns. We recently observed a fascinating case where a company like Vision Software had to be split in two because its defense contracts were too sensitive for foreign or non-strategic capital. The original shareholders kept the government-facing defense arm, while a local fund acquired the private sector contracts, highlighting how regulatory and security restrictions can complicate and even dictate the structure of M&A. As AI continues to evolve and drive the need for localized data protection, we will eventually see these early-stage companies combine to gain scale, but for now, the market is still populating with new players rather than consolidating them.
As the market matures, how do you see the relationship between data center platforms, energy distribution, and artificial intelligence evolving over the next several years?
Everything is becoming deeply interconnected, forming what I think of as a “critical infrastructure loop.” Data centers are no longer just buildings; they are the heart of the AI revolution, but they are also incredibly energy-hungry, which links them directly to the energy sector and innovations like Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). We are seeing a real need to address the imbalance in distributed solar generation, where there is an excess of power during the day and a significant shortfall at night, a problem that data centers must solve to remain operational 24/7. Currently, there are about five or six major data center platforms in the market, several of which are owned by investment funds that will eventually need to find an exit. This exit will likely happen through massive mergers or acquisitions by energy-conglomerates or global tech giants, as the synergy between processing power and power generation becomes the defining competitive advantage.
For a business owner or an investor looking at the current landscape, especially with the added complexity of political cycles, what is your forecast for the sector?
My forecast for the sector is one of “selective acceleration,” where we see a sharp divide between those who are already established in the country and those waiting on the sidelines. For the rest of 2026 and heading into 2027, I expect the telecommunications sector to remain the heavyweight in terms of value, though we may start to see a shortage of truly attractive, high-quality assets to acquire. Cybersecurity will continue its upward trajectory as a vital niche, especially as international groups seek to secure their local data footprints. If you are an investor already familiar with the local market’s “ups and downs,” now is the time to strike, as you can often secure more favorable terms while others are paralyzed by geopolitical uncertainty. However, if your strategy relies on attracting new foreign entrants, patience is your best asset; let the political dust settle, because those new players will be far more willing to pay a premium once they have a clearer view of the long-term economic horizon.
