I’m thrilled to sit down with Vladislav Zaimov, a seasoned telecommunications specialist with deep expertise in enterprise telecommunications and risk management of vulnerable networks. With years of experience navigating the complexities of broadband technologies, Vladislav offers unparalleled insights into the rapidly evolving Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) market in the US. In this conversation, we dive into the competitive landscape among major carriers like T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T, explore the implications of new market entrants and acquisitions, and discuss how FWA is reshaping broadband access for American households. We also touch on the challenges of market saturation and the potential for FWA to expand the overall broadband pie.
Can you give us a broad picture of where the Fixed Wireless Access market stands in the US right now?
Absolutely. The FWA market in the US has seen remarkable growth over the past few years as a viable alternative to traditional wired broadband. It leverages 5G and other wireless technologies to deliver high-speed internet, particularly in areas where fiber or cable isn’t feasible. T-Mobile and Verizon have been the frontrunners, driving significant subscriber gains by capitalizing on their extensive 5G networks. However, we’re starting to see a slowdown in subscriber growth in recent quarters, largely due to market maturation in some regions and capacity constraints that limit expansion. It’s a dynamic space, with competition heating up as new players enter and existing ones refine their strategies.
What’s behind the recent slowdown in subscriber growth for FWA, especially for leaders like T-Mobile and Verizon?
The slowdown can be attributed to a few key factors. First, in many urban and suburban markets, the low-hanging fruit—households without good wired options—has largely been tapped. Second, capacity constraints on wireless networks are becoming a real issue as data demand continues to skyrocket. Carriers have to balance FWA with mobile services on the same spectrum, and in some areas, they’re hitting limits. Lastly, competition from cable operators, who are introducing lower-priced tiers to counter FWA, is starting to bite into potential growth. It’s a natural evolution as the market matures, but it poses challenges for sustained expansion.
How is the competitive landscape in FWA changing with new players like AT&T entering with their Internet Air product?
AT&T’s entry with Internet Air is a game-changer. They’ve been a bit late to the FWA party compared to T-Mobile and Verizon, but they’re coming in strong with a 5G-based offering that directly competes on price and performance. This intensifies the pressure on the leading duo, as AT&T has a massive existing customer base and network infrastructure to leverage. Their aggressive push could force T-Mobile and Verizon to lower prices or enhance their offerings, which ultimately benefits consumers but squeezes margins. It’s also stirring up the market in areas where FWA options were previously limited to one or two providers.
Speaking of AT&T, how does their proposed $23 billion acquisition of EchoStar spectrum fit into their FWA ambitions?
That acquisition, if it goes through, is a strategic move to bolster AT&T’s FWA capabilities. Spectrum is the lifeblood of wireless services, and acquiring EchoStar’s assets would give AT&T access to additional frequency bands to expand their 5G network capacity. This is critical for FWA, where data demands are high and capacity constraints can hinder growth. With more spectrum, AT&T can cover more households and improve service quality, positioning Internet Air as a stronger competitor. It’s a clear signal they’re not just dipping their toes in FWA—they’re diving in headfirst.
T-Mobile and Verizon are also innovating with their FWA offerings. Can you tell us more about T-Mobile’s Mint Mobile launch of MINTernet at $30 a month?
T-Mobile’s move with Mint Mobile launching MINTernet at $30 per month is a brilliant play to capture the price-sensitive segment of the market. Mint Mobile already has a reputation for affordable plans in the mobile space, and extending that ethos to FWA through MINTernet targets households looking for budget-friendly internet options. It’s a way for T-Mobile to diversify their FWA portfolio, appealing to a demographic that might not opt for their premium plans. This also puts pressure on competitors to match or beat that price point, further driving affordability in the market.
On Verizon’s side, how does their focus on the multiple-dwelling unit market give them an advantage, and what’s the role of their proposed acquisition of Starry?
Verizon’s strategy to target multiple-dwelling units—like apartment complexes and condos—is smart because these environments often have unique connectivity challenges. Wired broadband can be tough to deploy in such settings due to infrastructure limitations or landlord agreements, making FWA an ideal solution. Verizon can offer a seamless, building-wide service with less hassle. Their proposed acquisition of Starry, a company with experience in this niche, enhances their expertise and technology in serving these dense urban markets. It’s a way to carve out a distinct edge over competitors who are more focused on single-family homes.
Let’s shift to market coverage. How widespread is access to FWA options for US households at this point?
Right now, about 80% of US households have access to at least one FWA option, which is a testament to how quickly this technology has scaled. However, the numbers drop significantly when you look at multiple options—only 35% have two FWA providers, and just 13% have three. This shows that while FWA is widely available, choice is still limited in many areas. The coverage is largely driven by the Big Three carriers, but their rollout prioritizes areas where they don’t have fiber or face capacity issues, which shapes the uneven distribution.
Do you think the percentage of households with multiple FWA options will grow significantly in the coming years?
I do, but the growth will be gradual and uneven. As carriers like AT&T ramp up their FWA presence and smaller players potentially enter the fray, more households will gain access to multiple options. Spectrum acquisitions and network upgrades will help, too. However, barriers like capacity constraints and the high cost of expanding into rural or less profitable areas will slow progress. I’d expect urban and suburban markets to see the most gains in choice over the next few years, while rural areas might lag unless there’s significant policy or investment support.
What are some of the key barriers preventing more areas from having access to multiple FWA providers?
One major barrier is spectrum availability and capacity. Wireless networks rely on finite spectrum resources, and carriers often have to prioritize between mobile and FWA services. In densely populated areas, this can limit how many providers can realistically offer robust service. Infrastructure costs are another hurdle—building out towers or small cells to support FWA isn’t cheap, especially in less populated regions. Additionally, regulatory hurdles and local zoning laws can slow deployment. Finally, the Big Three’s strategic decisions to avoid overlapping with their own fiber offerings mean some areas are intentionally left with fewer FWA options.
There’s an idea floating around that having more FWA competitors in a market could actually grow the overall broadband market. What’s your perspective on this?
I think there’s a lot of truth to that. When you have multiple FWA providers in a market, it increases awareness and accessibility of wireless broadband as an option. Competition drives innovation, better pricing, and marketing efforts that pull in customers who might have stuck with subpar wired services or gone without internet altogether. Data suggests that FWA’s market share grows with each additional provider, though the incremental gain shrinks as more enter. It’s about reaching that price-conscious segment that’s looking for alternatives, and more players help tap into that demand, expanding the pie for everyone.
What is your forecast for the future of FWA competition and its impact on broadband access in the US?
Looking ahead, I see FWA continuing to play a pivotal role in bridging the digital divide, especially as competition intensifies. With AT&T stepping up and T-Mobile and Verizon innovating, we’ll likely see improved affordability and service quality, which will draw in more subscribers, particularly in underserved areas. However, capacity constraints and spectrum scarcity will remain challenges, potentially capping growth unless addressed through policy or technology advancements. I expect FWA to complement rather than fully replace wired broadband, carving out a significant niche—perhaps 15-20% of the market—over the next decade. The real wildcard is how cable operators and fiber overbuilders respond, as their moves will shape how much room FWA has to grow.
