The Ericsson Mobility Report, released in November 2024, provides a comprehensive analysis of the projected growth and evolution of global mobile network data traffic and 5G subscriptions. Extending its forecast period until 2030, the report emphasizes the significant role of 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced technologies in driving the telecommunications industry’s evolution. Communications service providers (CSPs) are expected to focus on deploying new capabilities that create offerings centered on value delivery rather than mere data volume, showcasing a shift towards performance-based business models.
Projected Growth in Mobile Network Data Traffic
Tripling Data Traffic by 2030
The report highlights the projected growth in global mobile network data traffic, which is expected to nearly triple between 2024 and 2030. Despite a slowing growth rate estimated at 21 percent year-on-year for 2024, the increase in data traffic underscores the expanding demand for mobile connectivity. By the end of 2030, there will be 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions, with 60 percent of these being 5G SA subscriptions. This surge emphasizes the growing reliance on mobile networks and the need for robust infrastructure to support this demand.
One key aspect of this anticipated growth is the significant role 5G SA will play. As of now, fewer than 20 percent of the approximately 320 CSPs offering commercial 5G services operate 5G SA. The report emphasizes that the densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites will be crucial to unlocking the full potential of 5G capabilities, which include programmable and intelligent networks. This shift towards 5G SA reflects the industry’s move to enhance network performance and offer specialized services that meet diverse customer needs.
Importance of 5G Standalone
The importance of 5G Standalone is underscored by its potential to drive substantial improvements in network performance and service differentiation. Unlike non-standalone (NSA) networks, which rely partially on existing 4G infrastructure, 5G SA networks are entirely independent and capable of leveraging the full suite of 5G capabilities. This independence allows for greater innovation in network functionalities and service offerings, positioning 5G SA as a cornerstone of future telecommunications advancements.
The report notes that while many CSPs have begun to roll out 5G services, the true potential of 5G can only be realized through widespread adoption of 5G SA. This adoption will enable CSPs to deliver high-performing, programmable networks that can be tailored to specific applications and industries. This transition from data volume-centric models to performance-based business models marks a pivotal shift, offering new avenues for monetization and enhanced user experiences.
Case Studies of Early Adoption
T-Mobile’s Network Slicing
The report showcases several case studies demonstrating the advantages of early adoption and the exploration of value-based service models. For instance, T-Mobile in the U.S. has been actively piloting and implementing network slicing, a method of creating multiple virtual networks on a single physical 5G network infrastructure. This technology supports various use cases that require differentiated connectivity, illustrating the practical benefits of 5G SA. Network slicing allows T-Mobile to offer customized service levels for different applications, ensuring optimal performance for specific needs.
Through its implementation of network slicing, T-Mobile has been able to provide enhanced support for critical applications such as autonomous driving, remote surgery, and high-stakes financial transactions. This capability to tailor network performance to specific requirements showcases the value of 5G SA. It also highlights how this technology can meet the demands of different industries, offering a competitive edge for CSPs that adopt it early. T-Mobile’s progress from pilot phases to real-world applications exemplifies the potential of network slicing to revolutionize connectivity services.
Elisa’s Premium FWA Services
Elisa in Finland has leveraged 5G SA to enable premium Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) services, outperforming previous broadband solutions. This deployment highlights the superior performance and customer satisfaction achieved through 5G SA, showcasing its potential to revolutionize broadband services. By utilizing 5G SA, Elisa has been able to offer faster, more reliable internet access, particularly in areas where traditional broadband infrastructure may be limited or unavailable.
Customer feedback has been overwhelmingly positive, with users noting significant improvements in speed and reliability compared to previous broadband solutions. Elisa’s success with premium FWA services underscores the effectiveness of 5G SA in enhancing connectivity and fulfilling high-speed internet demands. This case study demonstrates how 5G SA can drive innovation and satisfaction in the broadband market, paving the way for broader adoption and competitive differentiation among CSPs.
stc’s Multi-NR Carrier Strategy
Additionally, stc in Saudi Arabia is pursuing a multi-New Radio (NR) carrier strategy to ensure optimal network performance. This approach demonstrates the importance of strategic planning and investment in 5G technologies to achieve high-performing networks capable of meeting diverse customer needs. By incorporating multiple NR carriers, stc aims to maximize the efficiency and coverage of its 5G network, providing robust and reliable service to its users.
Stc’s strategy involves deploying multiple frequency bands to enhance network capacity and coverage, particularly in densely populated areas. This multi-carrier approach allows for seamless connectivity and improved user experiences, even in challenging environments. The success of stc’s initiatives highlights the critical role of forward-thinking strategies in leveraging 5G SA technologies. It also underscores the competitive advantages that can be gained through meticulous planning and investment in advanced network solutions.
Shift Towards Performance-Based Business Models
Service Differentiation and Monetization
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President, Head of Business Area Networks at Ericsson, emphasizes the importance of service differentiation and performance-based opportunities as the telecommunications industry evolves. The report identifies the shift towards high-performing, programmable networks enabled by openness and cloud infrastructure as pivotal. These networks will allow service providers to charge for services based on the actual value delivered, rather than the volume of data used, thus underscoring the potential for substantial new monetization opportunities. This new approach aligns network performance with revenue, providing incentives for CSPs to continually enhance their offerings.
The shift towards performance-based business models represents a significant transformation in how CSPs operate. By focusing on the value delivered rather than data volume, CSPs can create innovative services that cater to specific customer needs, driving both customer satisfaction and revenue growth. This paradigm shift is enabled by the advancements in 5G SA and 5G Advanced technologies, which provide the necessary infrastructure for delivering high-quality, differentiated services. The report highlights that service providers who embrace this shift are likely to gain a competitive edge in the rapidly evolving telecommunications landscape.
Global Potential for Differentiated Connectivity
The global potential for differentiated connectivity is further highlighted by the observation that, beyond China, 5G mid-band deployment is currently only at about 30 percent of sites globally. This suggests considerable growth potential in regions outside China, indicating a significant opportunity for CSPs to expand their 5G offerings and capture new markets. The report emphasizes that substantial investments and strategic planning are required to close this deployment gap and fully realize the benefits of 5G technologies.
Regions with lower 5G mid-band deployment can seize the opportunity to implement 5G SA and other advanced technologies, positioning themselves as leaders in connectivity innovation. The report outlines that targeted efforts to enhance coverage, particularly in underserved areas, can drive significant improvements in network performance and service delivery. By capitalizing on this potential, CSPs can create a robust, differentiated offering that meets the growing demand for high-speed, reliable connectivity across diverse markets.
Growing Popularity of Fixed Wireless Access
FWA as a Major Use Case
The report notes that Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to grow in popularity as the second largest use case for 5G after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB). Over 80 percent of CSPs in four out of six global regions now offer FWA, signaling a strong market demand. This trend highlights the increasing importance of FWA in providing high-speed internet access, particularly in areas where traditional broadband infrastructure is lacking. FWA leverages 5G technologies to deliver reliable, high-speed internet connectivity, making it an attractive solution for both urban and rural areas.
As more CSPs adopt FWA, the technology has proven to be a viable alternative to fixed-line broadband, offering flexibility and scalability that traditional solutions cannot match. The growing prevalence of FWA underscores the potential of 5G to revolutionize internet access, bridging the digital divide and providing connectivity in remote and underserved regions. This shift highlights the critical role of 5G SA in enabling advanced FWA services that cater to the evolving needs of consumers and businesses.
Speed-Based Tariff Plans
The trend of CSPs offering FWA speed-based tariff plans has seen significant growth, with the number of such providers increasing from 30 percent to 43 percent in the previous year alone. In Western Europe, 52 percent of CSPs now offer these tariff plans, up from 32 percent, accounting for 73 percent of all 5G FWA launches globally in the past year. By the end of 2030, 350 million global FWA connections are anticipated, with about 80 percent of these being over 5G. The rise in speed-based tariff plans reflects the growing consumer demand for flexible, tailored internet solutions.
These tariff plans allow consumers to choose packages based on their specific usage needs, providing a more personalized internet experience. The increasing adoption of speed-based tariff plans among CSPs demonstrates the shift towards value-driven business models that prioritize customer satisfaction. By offering a range of options, service providers can cater to diverse customer segments, from casual users to those requiring high-speed connectivity for work or entertainment. This approach not only enhances customer satisfaction but also creates new revenue opportunities for CSPs in the competitive telecommunications market.
Integration of AI in Mobile Networks
AI-Driven Growth in Network Traffic
The Ericsson Mobility Report published in November 2024 provides an in-depth analysis of expected growth and changes in global mobile network data traffic and 5G subscriptions. Extending predictions through 2030, the report highlights the critical impact of 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced technologies in propelling the advancement of the telecommunications industry. Telecommunications service providers are likely to prioritize developing new functionalities that focus on value delivery instead of just increasing data volume. This indicates a move towards performance-centric business models. The emphasis is not merely on expanding data capacities but on enhancing service quality and user experience through advanced 5G technologies. As a result, CSPs will invest in innovations that bolster network efficiency, reliability, and overall service delivery, adapting to market demands for higher performance and specialized solutions. This evolution signals a pivotal shift in the telecom sector, with an eye on future needs and technological advancements.
