The November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report provides a comprehensive look into the future of mobile networks, focusing on the rapid growth of 5G technology and the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI). This report highlights the significant advancements expected in mobile network data traffic, 5G subscriptions, and the evolution of communication service providers (CSPs) towards performance-based business models.
Accelerating 5G Deployment
Growth in 5G Subscriptions
The report forecasts that global 5G subscriptions will reach around 6.3 billion by the end of 2030. This growth signifies a major shift towards more advanced, standalone systems capable of offering improved user experiences and new service monetization opportunities. By 2030, 60 percent of these subscriptions are expected to be 5G Standalone (5G SA), highlighting the industry’s move towards more sophisticated network infrastructures. This milestone marks a significant shift, as it indicates that a majority of users will be relying on networks that offer considerably enhanced connectivity and capabilities.
In addition to improved user experiences, 5G SA technology allows for new business and service models that were not feasible with previous network generations. CSPs can leverage these advanced systems to offer services that not only provide high-speed connectivity but also ensure quality and reliability, meeting the demands of various industries and user groups. This makes the adoption of 5G SA a critical step in the ongoing evolution of communication networks.
Early Adopters and Strategic Movements
Early adopters among service providers are leveraging 5G to offer value-centric services rather than volume-based models. T-Mobile in the U.S. and Elisa in Finland are prime examples, utilizing differentiated connectivity and performance-based opportunities to enhance user experiences. These strategic movements underscore the importance of service differentiation in the evolving telecom landscape. As more providers follow this trend, the emphasis will shift from simply offering connectivity to delivering high-value services that meet specific user needs and expectations.
T-Mobile’s emphasis on guaranteed, uninterrupted high-end connectivity is a testament to this new approach. Their strategy focuses on providing a superior user experience by ensuring consistent performance, even in high-demand scenarios. Elisa, on the other hand, has developed value delivery models that align with performance-based opportunities, showcasing how targeted and strategic use of 5G technology can lead to improved user satisfaction and new revenue streams.
Impact on Mobile Network Data Traffic
Projections for Data Traffic Growth
The report projects a nearly 200 percent increase in global mobile network data traffic from 2024 to 2030. Despite a deceleration in the annual growth rate to approximately 21 percent in 2024, the overall data traffic is expected to surge significantly. By the end of 2030, 5G networks will carry about 80 percent of total mobile data traffic, up from 34 percent in 2024. This substantial growth in data traffic underscores the transformative impact that 5G technology is expected to have on the global mobile network landscape.
The increased data traffic is driven by several factors, including the growing number of connected devices, higher data consumption per user, and the expansion of data-intensive applications and services. After full deployment, 5G’s enhanced capabilities will enable faster speeds, lower latency, and greater reliability, making it the ideal network for supporting advanced applications such as virtual reality, augmented reality, and IoT solutions.
Role of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to gain traction as the second most substantial use case for 5G, following enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB). More than 80 percent of CSPs in four out of six regions globally now offer FWA services. The number of FWA providers offering speed-based tariff plans has risen substantially, with Western Europe experiencing rapid growth in this area. This growth highlights the increasing demand for alternative broadband solutions that can deliver high-speed internet access without the need for extensive physical infrastructure.
FWA offers significant advantages, particularly in areas where traditional wired broadband services are not feasible or cost-effective. By leveraging 5G technology, CSPs can provide high-speed internet access to underserved or remote areas, bridging the digital divide and expanding connectivity. The flexibility and efficiency of FWA make it an attractive option for both residential and business customers, driving its adoption across various regions.
Advancements in 5G Technologies
5G Standalone and 5G Advanced
The deployment and advancement of 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced technologies are expected to accelerate for the remainder of the decade. These technologies will enable CSPs to offer high-performing programmable networks, leveraging openness and cloud technologies to monetize services based on delivered value rather than data volume consumption. This shift towards performance-based models reflects the evolving needs of both consumers and businesses, who now prioritize reliability and quality over sheer data volume.
The adoption of programmable networks allows CSPs to dynamically manage network resources, ensuring optimal performance and efficiency. This capability is particularly crucial in supporting advanced applications that require low latency, high reliability, and seamless connectivity. By focusing on the value delivered to users, CSPs can create new revenue streams and enhance customer satisfaction, positioning themselves competitively in the market.
Mid-Band Deployment and Network Densification
The report highlights that beyond China, 5G mid-band deployment is currently limited to approximately 30 percent of site installations globally. Increased densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites is anticipated to unlock the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities. This densification will be crucial for achieving optimal network performance and service differentiation, enabling CSPs to meet the growing demands for high-speed connectivity and advanced services.
Densification involves increasing the number of small cells and base stations within a given area, improving network capacity, and coverage. This approach is essential for enhancing the performance of 5G networks, particularly in urban environments with high user density. As CSPs continue to invest in mid-band deployment and densification, they will be better equipped to deliver the high-quality, reliable connectivity that users expect from 5G networks.
Integration of Artificial Intelligence
AI’s Impact on Network Traffic
The potential impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI), including Generative AI Applications, on network traffic is significant. As AI technologies become more integrated across smartphones, laptops, watches, and FWA products, they could drive network traffic growth beyond current baseline predictions. This integration will influence both uplink and downlink data consumption, further shaping the future of mobile networks. With AI-enabled devices and applications generating more data, the demand for fast, reliable network connectivity will continue to grow, highlighting the importance of ongoing advancements in 5G technology.
AI integration into mobile networks can enhance various aspects of network performance, including traffic management, security, and user experience. By leveraging AI, CSPs can optimize network operations, identify and mitigate potential issues before they impact users, and deliver personalized services. This not only improves the overall efficiency of the network but also enhances the user experience, making AI a critical component in the evolution of mobile networks.
Case Studies on AI Integration
Three detailed case studies in the report offer practical insights into how leading service providers are adopting and leveraging new technologies. T-Mobile in the U.S. is moving network slicing initiatives from pilot phases to real-world scenarios, while Elisa in Finland is enabling premium FWA services through 5G SA. In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), stc demonstrates a multi-New Radio (NR) carrier strategy aimed at achieving optimal network performance. These case studies illustrate the practical applications and benefits of integrating AI and advanced 5G technologies into mobile networks.
Each of these case studies showcases different approaches to leveraging AI and 5G technologies to enhance network performance and service delivery. T-Mobile’s focus on network slicing demonstrates how AI can be used to create virtualized network segments, each optimized for specific applications and user groups. Elisa’s premium FWA services highlight the benefits of using 5G SA to deliver high-quality, reliable internet access. In contrast, stc’s multi-NR carrier strategy underscores the importance of optimizing network resources to achieve peak performance.
Future Outlook and 6G Deployments
Projections for 6G
Looking toward the future, the report anticipates the first 6G deployments to occur around 2030. These deployments will build upon and expand the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced technologies, laying the groundwork for even more advanced and integrated communication networks. The evolution towards 6G will further enhance the capabilities and performance of mobile networks, driving innovation and new service opportunities. The anticipated advancements in 6G technology promise to deliver unprecedented levels of connectivity, speed, and reliability, enabling a host of new applications and services that were previously unimaginable.
As the industry prepares for 6G, ongoing research and development efforts will focus on addressing the challenges and leveraging the opportunities presented by this next-generation technology. This includes exploring new spectrum bands, developing innovative network architectures, and creating advanced use cases that take full advantage of 6G’s capabilities. The transition to 6G will not only enhance existing services but also pave the way for entirely new applications and business models, further transforming the mobile communication landscape.
Strategic Opportunities for Service Providers
The November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report presents an in-depth analysis of the near future of mobile networks, with a particular focus on the extraordinary growth of 5G technology and the incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI). This report sheds light on the remarkable advancements that are anticipated in mobile network data traffic and 5G subscriptions. Notably, it also examines the transformation of communication service providers (CSPs) as they transition towards performance-based business models.
In addition to highlighting these key elements, the report delves into how the integration of AI within mobile networks will contribute to enhanced network optimization and efficiency. With AI-driven predictive maintenance and automated network management, CSPs can provide a higher quality of service and reduce operational costs. The report also explores the expected impact of 5G on various industries, from manufacturing to healthcare, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize operations and connectivity. Overall, the November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report provides a detailed projection of the advancements and technological shifts set to redefine mobile communications.
