The landscape of identity security is rapidly evolving, with new threats emerging and old ones resurfacing in more sophisticated forms. As we look ahead to 2025, it’s crucial to understand these potential threats and the strategies to mitigate them. This article delves into five primary predictions for identity security, offering insights and actionable advice to help organizations stay ahead of cybercriminals.
Craftier Phishing Kits
Evolution of Phishing-as-a-Service (PhaaS)
Phishing kits have come a long way from their rudimentary beginnings. Today, they are sophisticated, commercially available services known as phishing-as-a-service (PhaaS). These services, such as ONNX and FishXProxy, are designed to target entire organizations, providing full support to cybercriminals who may lack technical expertise. They can even defeat “impossible travel” detections by spoofing or using proxy IP addresses near the targeted individual’s location, bypassing critical fraud detection measures.
The emergence of PhaaS has democratized the capabilities of sophisticated phishing tactics, allowing even less technically skilled individuals to launch high-profile attacks. By offering readily available toolkits—often with user-friendly interfaces—these malicious services broaden the attack surface considerably. Companies are now facing more frequent and organized phishing attempts that involve well-researched tactics. ONNX, for example, markets itself as a “one-stop shop” for all phishing needs, catering to various types of attacks and user scenarios, which makes it increasingly challenging to discern and block these scams.
AI Integration in Phishing Kits
The inclusion of artificial intelligence in phishing kits is on the rise, adding another layer of complexity and believability to phishing attacks. Many of these kits advertised in online forums claim to possess AI capabilities, which are used to create deepfake features and make phishing attempts more convincing. These AI-driven kits can generate realistic narratives, mimicking human interactions with high precision, thus increasing the success rate of these attacks.
Artificial intelligence has revolutionized phishing strategies by providing attackers with tools to automate and enhance their deception tactics. AI-powered phishing kits can now produce highly personalized and contextually appropriate messages, significantly improving their chances of deceiving targets. Deepfake technology enables attackers to fabricate audio or video messages that convincingly mimic the speech and appearance of trusted individuals, making phishing attempts even more believable. This AI integration not only raises the success rates of these attacks but also makes them harder to detect and prevent.
Mitigation Strategies for Phishing
To counteract these advancements, organizations should adopt phishing-resistant authentication methods like passkeys, number-matching push notifications, hardware keys (e.g., Yubikeys), and systems like Okta’s FastPass. Blocking IP-anonymizing services such as Tor and residential network proxy services is also recommended. Regular and comprehensive phishing awareness training can better equip employees to recognize and respond to phishing attempts.
Employing advanced authentication mechanisms is a pivotal step in mitigating the risks posed by sophisticated phishing kits. Phishing-resistant methods like passkeys and hardware keys eliminate many of the vulnerabilities targeted by phishing attacks. Additionally, regular and thorough staff training programs are essential. These should not only cover the basics but also include simulated phishing attempts to test and improve employee responses. Organizations should also consider adopting network policies that block known anonymizing services, further reducing the threat landscape.
The Return of Device-Based Attacks
Direct Device Attacks
With the increased adoption of phishing-resistant multi-factor authentication (MFA) and stronger encryption protocols, cybercriminals are expected to shift their focus to direct device-based attacks. These attacks target devices directly to retrieve credentials, bypassing the need to deceive users through fake websites or intercepted communications.
The evolution in cybersecurity defense mechanisms has naturally led cybercriminals to evolve their strategies, focusing on the devices themselves rather than the networks and communications they rely on. Direct device-based attacks can bypass many of the safeguards built into user authentication systems, targeting the devices where credentials are stored or input. Threat actors are refining techniques to exploit vulnerabilities in endpoint devices, making them a primary battleground for future cyber conflicts.
Examples of Device-Based Attacks
Spyware apps, particularly on Android devices, can capture sensitive data such as passwords and one-time passcodes by taking screenshots or logging keypresses. Compromised web browsers, through manipulated extensions and add-ons, can steal credentials and session cookies, leading to account hijacking even after successful login. Additionally, sophisticated attacks on passkeys and router-based attacks can compromise the security of devices and networks.
Spyware remains a potent threat, particularly as app ecosystems become more complex and devices more interconnected. Meanwhile, web browsers, essential tools for every user, are increasingly becoming focal points for attacks. Extensions and add-ons, often downloaded with little scrutiny, can be Trojan horses for malware. Passkeys and keychains, though more secure than traditional passwords, are not immune to sophisticated attack methods that intercept data in transit. Routers, often overlooked, can be manipulated to facilitate widespread, undetected phishing attempts by altering DNS settings or logging online activities.
Mitigation Strategies for Device-Based Attacks
To safeguard against these types of attacks, organizations should enforce the use of managed devices for employees. This includes policies that require business operations on managed Macs or PCs and enforce mobile device management (MDM) on smartphones accessing company resources. Equipping all devices with endpoint detection and response (EDR) or antivirus software, managing browsers, and potentially implementing secure enterprise browsers are further recommendations to ensure all browser activity remains within secure parameters.
Managed devices offer a higher level of security compliance and monitoring, essential for mitigating device-based attacks. Enforcing MDM policies ensures that smartphones, which often have access to critical business resources, are adequately protected. The inclusion of EDR and antivirus software adds another layer of defense, capable of detecting and neutralizing threats before they can cause harm. Secure enterprise browsers offer managed environments better equipped to handle today’s sophisticated cybersecurity threats, ensuring that all browsing activity occurs within the safest possible framework.
Business Processes Will Become Targets
Exploitation of Business Processes
Cyber attackers are predicted to leverage weaknesses in standard business operations rather than solely focusing on technological vulnerabilities. This could involve social engineering to gather insider information, which could then be used to compromise business activities. Attackers posing as new employees may trick helpdesk technicians into divulging sensitive information or providing unauthorized access.
In an increasing shift from purely technical exploits, attackers are recognizing the value in targeting business processes, which can often be weak links in an otherwise secure chain. Social engineering remains a favored tactic, exploiting human nature to gain access to sensitive data. By posing as new employees or leveraging the trust typically directed towards internal communications, cybercriminals can evade many automated security measures. These tactics often involve multiple stages of attack, where initial access is used to gather further insider information, leading to more significant breaches.
Social Engineering Tactics
Attackers might exploit publicly available information on platforms like LinkedIn to map out a company’s hierarchy and identify potential targets. By understanding the internal structure, they can craft more convincing social engineering attacks, increasing their chances of success.
Platforms displaying professional profiles, like LinkedIn, provide valuable intelligence for would-be attackers who can methodically study an organization’s hierarchy and employee roles. This information allows cybercriminals to construct highly plausible spear-phishing attacks or pretext calls, which can be difficult to spot. The detailed personalization and contextual authenticity make these attacks dangerous, as even well-trained employees might be fooled into divulging critical information or performing unauthorized actions, believing the request to be legitimate and originating from within the organization.
Mitigation Strategies for Business Process Exploitation
Okta suggests enforceable methods for robust employee verification throughout their tenure at the company. This includes rigorous steps during the hiring and onboarding processes. For ongoing interactions, such as helpdesk communications, verification practices like callback procedures from known telephone numbers should be utilized to confirm the identity of the person making the request.
Robust verification steps during hiring and onboarding are the first line of defense against social engineering attacks. Ensuring thorough background checks and verification of credentials can prevent fraudulent entries into the employee roster. Companies should also adopt continuous verification processes for ongoing internal interactions. Implementing callback procedures where the helpdesk returns calls to known phone numbers can thwart attempts to gain sensitive information by impersonating employees. These strategies reinforce trust in internal processes and help maintain operational integrity.
Expanded Downgrade Attacks
Evolution of Downgrade Attacks
Downgrade attacks, previously common in mobile device security, are expected to evolve and expand in scope. These attacks force devices to rollback to less secure communication protocols or software versions, broadening the attack surface.
The expansion of downgrade attacks signifies a strategic pivot for cybercriminals who seek to exploit backward compatibility features inherent in many systems. By coercing devices to revert to outdated protocols or software versions, attackers can bypass modern security measures. This method is particularly insidious because it exploits legitimate system functionalities intended for compatibility and troubleshooting, turning them into vectors for attacks.
Examples of Downgrade Attacks
Communication downgrades can occur when cell towers manipulated by attackers enforce a downgrade from 5G or 4G to less secure 3G or 2G networks. Malicious web servers may force clients to revert to older, less secure versions of TLS/SSL. System downgrades can exploit Windows Update mechanisms to revert PCs to outdated and less secure builds. Wi-Fi protocol spoofing can also be an entry point by following older, less secure protocols.
Downgrade attacks are not limited to any single technology and can affect multiple facets of an organization’s operations. For example, communication downgrades affect mobile network security, making it easier for hackers to intercept data sent over less secure protocols. Similarly, web browsers forced to revert to outdated TLS/SSL versions become vulnerable to attacks that modern encryption standards would otherwise prevent. System downgrades through mechanisms like Windows Update can open up a myriad of vulnerabilities, making previously secure systems exposed to older exploits. Even Wi-Fi protocols, downgraded to older, insecure versions, can become points of entry for attackers.
Mitigation Strategies for Downgrade Attacks
Prevention of downgrade attacks includes disabling backward compatibility for outdated network protocols. Additionally, forbidding fallback to phishing-susceptible authentication factors, such as one-time passcodes sent via SMS, and continually educating employees about the risks associated with these downgrades are recommended.
A proactive approach to security configuration can mitigate risks of downgrade attacks by disabling backward compatibility features that are no longer necessary. Systems should be configured to support only the latest, secure protocols, and software should be regularly updated to prevent exploitation through older versions. Education is also a crucial component; employees need to understand the importance of maintaining up-to-date systems and the dangers associated with fallback mechanisms like SMS-based authentication, which are more susceptible to attacks. Comprehensive awareness programs can instill best practices and ensure personnel remain vigilant against attempts to coerce system downgrades.
AI Everywhere
Enhanced Threat of AI-Driven Cyber Attacks
The influence of AI in cybersecurity threats is anticipated to be extensive by 2025. Given the potential for generative AI to facilitate phishing and create deepfakes, the threat posed by these technologies is substantial. Instances such as a high-profile fraud in Hong Kong, where employees were misled into a $25 million transfer by deepfake “colleagues,” highlight just one example of what’s possible.
Generative AI has the potential to significantly transform the landscape of cyber threats, enabling highly sophisticated and personalized attacks that can compromise even the most secure systems. The aforementioned case in Hong Kong illustrates the extent of the risks—where deepfake technology can convincingly simulate trusted individuals. Such advancements in AI pose a considerable threat across various attack vectors, ranging from personalized phishing and spear-phishing to the creation of compelling fake identities and manipulative content, all of which can be leveraged to devastating effect.
Key Threats Posed by AI
Phishing and spear-phishing attacks are expected to be significantly enhanced by AI, automating the creation and personalization of emails. AI can also maintain message threads, keeping conversations ongoing and making phishing attempts seem more legitimate. The creation of deepfake audio and video will become more accessible, providing further opportunities for fraud.
AI’s capability to automate and escalate attack efforts could make phishing and spear-phishing even harder to detect and stop. It can generate emails that are not only personalized but also contextually consistent with previous interactions, appearing genuine and thereby increasing the likelihood of the recipient falling prey. Additionally, real-time deepfake technology can produce on-the-fly fake video or audio content, which could be used to spoof voice or video calls from known contacts, making manipulative attempts to exfiltrate data or elicit unauthorized actions all the more credible and perilous.
Mitigation Strategies for AI-Driven Threats
Organizations should foster a culture where employees feel empowered to question suspicious or unreasonable requests, especially those that come from supposed superiors. This includes education on the potential risks and establishing protocols for verification in seemingly atypical instructions.
Building a strong security culture where questioning and verifying unusual requests is normalized can significantly reduce the effectiveness of AI-driven threats. Regular training sessions should highlight the emerging risks associated with AI technologies and teach employees to recognize telltale signs of manipulation. Establishing and enforcing strict verification protocols for high-risk actions ensures that even if an AI-driven attack is highly convincing, there’s a failsafe in place to prevent inadvertent compliance. These strategies underscore a proactive, human-centered approach to combating advanced AI threats.
Main Findings and Overarching Trends
The landscape of identity security is rapidly transforming, with emerging threats gaining complexity and older ones evolving with greater sophistication. As we approach 2025, it’s crucial to grasp these impending dangers and formulate effective mitigation strategies. This article explores five key predictions for the future of identity security, providing insights and practical advice to help organizations stay vigilant and ahead of cybercriminals.
Currently, organizations face an increasingly complex threat environment. Cybercriminals are not only becoming more technologically advanced but are also finding new methods to exploit vulnerabilities in identity security systems. These evolving tactics make it essential for businesses to stay informed and proactive. Predictions highlight increased sophistication in phishing attacks, growing instances of identity theft, more targeted ransomware attacks, AI-driven cyber threats, and the potential for quantum computing to challenge current security protocols.
Understanding these trends and preparing to combat them is crucial. Businesses should invest in advanced security measures such as multi-factor authentication, continuous monitoring of systems, employee training, and adopting cutting-edge technologies like AI to predict and counteract threats. These steps can enhance an organization’s defense mechanisms, ensuring they remain resilient in the face of the evolving identity-security landscape.
