We’re joined by Vladislav Zaimov, a seasoned specialist in enterprise telecommunications and network risk management. He provides his perspective on the critical shifts occurring in the cable and broadband industry, particularly focusing on the transition to new technologies like DOCSIS 4.0 and Distributed Access Architecture. We’ll explore the factors driving a major new spending cycle, the competitive landscape for next-generation virtualized platforms, and the strategic expansion into fiber-to-the-home technologies.
Vecima is anticipating a major growth inflection, with revenue projected to surge 20-30%. Beyond the DAA ramp-up with Charter, what specific operational milestones or customer behaviors will you be watching to validate this trend over the next 12 months? Please elaborate on the key indicators.
It’s an exciting, almost palpable, shift we’re seeing. The key indicator I’ll be watching is the velocity of node and remote PHY device shipments quarter over quarter. We saw DAA deployments hold steady around C$56.3 million recently, but to validate that 20% to 30% growth forecast, we need to see that number begin a steep and steady climb. I’m also looking for signs of broader adoption beyond our lead tier 1 customer. When we see smaller and mid-sized operators, who have been watching from the sidelines, begin to place significant orders, that will confirm the inflection point is not just a single-customer event but a genuine market-wide rejuvenation. It’s the difference between one big wave and a rising tide.
The cable tech sector has seen a temporary slowdown as operators integrated new DOCSIS 4.0 silicon. Could you walk us through the primary technical hurdles that caused this pause, and explain what has changed to finally unlock this new wave of HFC upgrade spending?
The slowdown was less about a lack of will and more about a deep-seated need for operational certainty. Integrating that new “unified” DOCSIS 4.0 silicon isn’t like swapping out a component in your computer; it’s a fundamental change to the network’s brain. The primary hurdle was ensuring that this new technology could be deployed at scale without introducing instability into a network serving millions of customers. This meant months, even years, of rigorous lab testing and field trials to work out all the software and hardware integration kinks. What’s changed is that the major operators have now completed that exhaustive validation process. They’ve built the confidence that the technology is stable, reliable, and ready for a mass-market rollout, which is finally unlocking the capital budgets that have been on hold.
While DAA upgrades are an immediate driver, the vCMTS market is a longer-term opportunity. With key operators initially selecting competitors, how are you differentiating your vCMTS solution to win over clients like Cox Communications? Can you share some key performance metrics from ongoing trials?
The vCMTS landscape is a marathon, not a sprint. While some early decisions have been made, many operators are still evaluating their paths. Our strategy, particularly with clients like Cox, is to be an intensely focused and collaborative partner. We differentiate by demonstrating superior performance in these real-world trials, focusing on efficiency, stability, and the ability to seamlessly integrate into their existing operational workflows. While specific trial metrics are confidential, the goal is to prove we can deliver lower total cost of ownership and greater architectural flexibility. The fact that we are engaged in these advanced trials signals our strength. We are positioning ourselves not just as an alternative, but as a strategic second-source provider who can de-risk an operator’s supply chain and drive competitive innovation in a market that is projected to grow to about $346 million by 2029.
You recently secured your first US-based XGS-PON customer, expanding beyond a traditional EPON focus. What is your strategy for competing in this new market, and how does offering both XGS-PON and EPON solutions position you against competitors in the broader fiber space?
Securing our first US XGS-PON customer was a pivotal moment for us. Our strategy is to leverage our deep expertise in access networks and offer operators a more complete toolkit. For years, our strength was in 10-Gig EPON, which serves a specific segment of the market very well. By adding XGS-PON, which has significant traction in other parts of the industry, we drastically increase our total addressable market. This dual-offering approach positions us as a versatile and flexible partner. We can go to any operator, whether they are a traditional cable company or a fiber overbuilder, and provide a best-in-class solution that fits their specific network architecture and business goals, rather than trying to force a one-size-fits-all product.
What is your forecast for the cable access network market over the next five years?
My forecast is for a period of sustained and significant investment, a true modernization cycle. The pent-up demand is real, and the technology is finally mature. We’re on the cusp of a major upgrade wave that will see operators aggressively push DAA and DOCSIS 4.0 deeper into their networks to remain competitive. Market data supports this, with some analysts projecting the overall broadband access market to peak around $18.8 billion in 2028. Over the next five years, I expect to see a consistent, robust spending environment as operators work to deliver multi-gigabit speeds over HFC, while simultaneously expanding their fiber footprint. It will be a dynamic period of transformation, with healthy competition driving innovation across the entire ecosystem.
